Social Campaigns in Vulnerable Populations

Joint work with Alexandra Avdeenko (World Bank), Luc Behaghel (Paris School of Economics, INRAE), Esther Duflo (University of Zurich, Massachussets Institute of Technology), Andreas Ette (Federal Institute for Population Research), Yagan Hazard (Collegio Alberto), Alexander Moldavski (ZI Mannheim), Nicolas Rüsch (Ulm University), and C. Katharina Spiess (Federal Institute for Population Research).

Vulnerable populations facing stigmatized conditions often fail to seek help despite high need. Social campaigns aim to address this gap by combining elements like awareness-raising, peer-to-peer dissemination, and calls for action, yet how these components interact—and potentially conflict–remains poorly understood. We develop a formal model quantifying tradeoffs between message reach, viral spread, and behavioral conversion, and then test it experimentally by promoting mental health care among Ukrainian refugees in Germany (N=1,993). While simple messages spread more readily, relatable patient testimonials proved 85% more effective at converting high-need individuals to action than celebrity endorsements (7.8 vs 4.2 conversions per 100 seeds). Explicit encouragement to share backfired, reducing uptake. These findings reveal fundamental tensions in designing campaigns for stigmatized behaviors: messages optimized for viral spread may fail to motivate action among those most in need.

The interventions and experiment are carried out in partnership with established institutions in Germany. Extensions to other countries may be possible at a later date.