We study how the behavior of older peers influences university track choices in Sweden’s centralized, strategy-proof matching system. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the enrollment shares of older high school peers across eight selective university tracks, we document a discouragement effect: a one percentage point rise in older-peer enrollment reduces the probability of ranking the track as one’s first choice by 0.15–0.87 percentage points (10–28% of the mean). This effect is largest among applicants with low to average grades and from the gender in minority in the given track, while high-achievers–especially migrants in Medicine–are unaffected. Our findings reveal a track-specific rank effect of potentially lower self-confidence and heightened perceived competition, highlighting contexts interventions may be necessary to better align aspirations with ability. (Joint work with Donia Kamel and Javier Soria Espín.)
